The long-run analysis of the association between macroeconomic variables and suicide: the case of Turkic-speaking countries in Central Asia

Abstract

Using an unbalanced data set covering the years from 1990 to 2017, this study examines the long-run relationship between three selected macroeconomic variables (unemployment, per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and inflation) and suicide rates for Turkic-speaking countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan). The mean group estimation results suggest that among the three macroeconomic variables under study, only the unemployment rate has a statistically significant relationship with the suicide rate for the Central Asian Turkic-speaking countries. Regarding country-specific estimations, results suggest that all macroeconomic variables under study correlate with the suicide rate for some countries in the sample. Overall, the empirical findings of the study suggest that unemployment and per capita GDP are important contributors of suicide and intentional self-harm in Central Asia. Estimation results also call attention to the inflation rate.