A new estimation approach based on moments for estimating Weibullparameters in wind power applications

Abstract

This study introduces a new estimation approach that could be used in calculating the Weibull parameters for the estimation of wind power. This new approach, called the method of multi-objective moments (MUOM), proposes minimization of the squared deviances between the first three population moments and corresponding sample moments. In the proposed MUOM, the third moment, which is used in the formula of wind power, is a key function since it provides a significant contribution to the correct prediction of wind energy. In order to demonstrate the performance of the proposed MUOM, it is compared with the well-known estimation methods such as the maximum likelihood, modified maximum likelihood, moment and energy pattern factor. In comparative analysis, the performance of the considered methods is evaluated on the actual wind speed data measured different time periods according to various goodness of fit criteria. The obtained results indicate that the MUOM definitely provides more accurate estimates than other well-known methods in estimating wind power based on the Weibull distribution. Thus, the MUOM can be used as an improved method in estimating wind power.