Flood Risk Assessment and Mapping in the Eşen River Basin Using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

Abstract

This study aims to evaluate potential flood events and develop a flood risk map for the Esen River Basin using the Geographic Information System-based Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) as a multi-criteria decision-making technique. In this context, both physical and human geographical factors contributing to flood events were initially assessed. Subsequently, datasets based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process were created using ArcMap 10.5 to comprehensively present flood risk. The dataset includes eight criteria: proximity to watercourses, elevation, slope, aspect, land use, precipitation, soil, and geological characteristics. The flood risk model derived from the analysis of these criteria identifies the valley floors of the Esen River, AkGay, and KaraGay, as well as the Een Plain, as areas with very high flood risk. Given that approximately 37% of the total basin area falls within high and very high-risk zones, it is clear that these flood-prone areas represent a significant portion that cannot be overlooked and must be carefully monitored. Floods in these areas, as has occurred in previous years, could lead to considerable loss of life and disrupt agricultural and tourism activities crucial to the basin's economy. Finally, the accuracy of the flood model was validated through observations of significant flood events that have occurred in the basin in recent years.