Stability analysis and numerical simulation of dynamic and fractional SEIRD models for spread of nCOVID-19 in Turkey

Abstract

There are various mathematical models that have been designed for forecasting the future behavior of coronavirus spreading, which helps to rapidly control the process while there is no treatment and vaccines. The main aim of this study is to describe COVID-19 dynamics in Turkey by using a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SEIRD) model. For this purpose, a new SEIRD model of nCOVID-19 and its fractional-order version are designed. The basic reproduction number is calculated with the generation operator method. All possible equilibria of the dynamic model are investigated in terms of the basic reproduction number. Further, stability conditions are obtained through the Routh-Hurwitz and Lyapunov stability theories. Finally, some numerical simulations of the dynamic system and its fractional version are given based on the data from the number of nCOVID-19 cases in Turkey. These results provide to implicate the theoretical findings corresponding to the model.