Balancing Climate Sensitivity and Resilience: Environmental Impacts on Selected Crop Yields in Turkiye

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of climate factors—temperature, precipitation, and CO2—on the yields of key crops (wheat, potatoes, and rice) in Turkiye, aiming to inform climate-resilient agricultural practices. Using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, the research examines short-run and long-run relationships between crop yields and climate variables from 1981 to 2020. The results indicate that wheat and potatoes cointegrate with climate variables, suggesting a stable long-term relationship. Wheat yields benefit from moderate increases in temperature and CO2 but are sensitive to excess precipitation. Similarly, potatoes are adversely affected by prolonged high temperatures and excessive rainfall, though CO2 shows a delayed positive impact. In contrast, rice yields show no long-run relationship with climate factors, responding instead to short-term variations and having a significant sensitivity to excessive precipitation and high temperatures. These findings underscore the need for crop-specific management strategies to adapt to climate variability, enhancing crop resilience and optimizing yields in Turkiye's diverse agricultural landscape.