A novel hybrid model based on Empirical Mode Decomposition and Echo State Network for wind power forecasting

Abstract

Accurate wind power forecasting is essential for (i) the management of wind energy, (ii) increasing the integration of generated power into the electrical grid, and (iii) enhancing maintenance efficiency. This paper proposes a novel hybrid model for short-term (1-hour ahead) wind power forecasting. The model integrates the echo-state network (ESN) architecture with empirical mode decomposition (EMD) to improve forecast accuracy. Unlike existing approaches that use separate models for each decomposed signal after EMD method, proposed model uses a single ESN structure to predict wind power by incorporating all decomposed signals and their past values. The main advantage of this architecture is that it eliminates the need to train multiple models, thereby streamlining the forecasting process. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, one year of data from the West of Duddon Sands, Barrow, and Horns Power offshore wind farms is utilized. Firstly, the classical ESN model and the EMD-ESN hybrid model are compared for the three datasets. Then, a comprehensive evaluation is performed by comparing the results of the proposed model with commonly used standalone and hybrid forecasting models such as Multi -Layer Perceptron (MLP), Adaptive-Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM), EMD-LSTM, EMD-BiLSTM, Variational Mode Decomposition based ESN (VMD-ESN), and Wavelet Decomposition based ESN (WD-ESN). The results show that the EMD-ESN hybrid model outperforms implemented models in predicting wind power in all three datasets. Furthermore, the proposed EMD-ESN model for an onshore wind turbine power data in Germany is compared with the SOTA models, such as Transformer, Informer, Autoformer, and Graph Patch Informer (GPI), in the literature. This study highlights the superior predictive capabilities of proposed model, making it a valuable tool for enhancing the accuracy of wind power forecasts, thereby contributing to the reliable integration of wind energy into the power grid.